Lewis Hamilton's future dominates F1 chatter at Italian Grand Prix

The cars screamed around the old woodland setting of the Monza circuit, through the Curva Parabolica and the Variante Ascari, in a noisily theatrical attempt to distract attention from the only topic of conversation; they failed

Should he go or should he stay, to amend the old hit from the Clash, was the only show in town here as Lewis Hamilton's possible switch from McLaren to Mercedes was discussed throughout the paddock with a ferocity that strangely lent the move a greater credence.

When the story emerged on Wednesday evening – or when an old possibility was given fresh impetus through the voice of Eddie Jordan – it was quickly dismissed as a bargaining gimmick by Hamilton's agents, XIX Entertainment, in order to get a better offer from his current employers. By Friday, though, it had become more plausible, through a combination of Hamilton's moody demeanour and the sheer ubiquity of the debate.

But why would Hamilton and his advisors countenance such a move, from an habitually successful team that are second in the constructors' championship to a struggling outfit of underachievers who are fifth?

There are a number of reasons. XIX Entertainment may not know much about Formula One but they do understand contracts and there is the chance that they will be able to wring more money from the German team.

Then there is the potential for Hamilton, working with a more global name, to further develop himself as a brand – something that has held an increasing fascination for him in recent years.

Remember, people laughed at the notion of David Beckham leaving Real Madrid for LA Galaxy, and Hamilton and Beckham share the same agent. There would be the chance for Hamilton to choose his own sponsors, and avoid the heavy workload that McLaren imposes on its drivers in this area.

There will also be an upheaval with the regulations in F1 in 2014, and some suspect that Mercedes will be well placed to exploit these.

The attraction of driving for the team was captured by his possible future team-mate Nico Rosberg when he said: "My perspective is that Mercedes and Ferrari are on one level in terms of the history in F1 and the standing. It's very, very special to drive for the Silver Arrow, and especially to win with a Silver Arrow." Rosberg and Hamilton know each other well, dating back to their karting days together at Mercedes.

Then – and this is slightly more complex – we come to the little matter of love. Rightly or wrongly, the brilliantly gifted but insecure Hamilton feels less than full appreciated in some corners of the Woking-based team. When he was asked, here, whether he felt valued by McLaren, he said, distractedly: "I don't know." He has certainly upset some members of the team by his bizarre and unpredictable behaviour.

If McLaren and Hamilton is a stale relationship, a fresh affair with Mercedes carries exciting possibilities and all the blandishments his considerable ego may require.

These, then, are the reasons why the febrile chatter going on here ahead of Sunday's Italian Grand Prix is a little more substantial than a silly season story. Hamilton's whole mood suggests a man less than happy with his lot, however wonderful that lot is. "He looks so unhappy at McLaren – I think he will go," a rival team principal said.

But why? Because even when all the reasons given above are taken into account, and added up, they don't amount to a convincing whole. Because he is surely less likely to win more titles at Mercedes than if he remains at McLaren. And titles will bring him all the stardust he craves.

Meanwhile, his team-mate, Jenson Button, is convinced Hamilton should stay. He said: "Moving to another team wouldn't hurt me as much as I think it would hurt him. The most important thing for us in Formula One is to win races. That is what we love. When you cross the finish line first, that is what makes you smile and what gets you emotional after a race.

"Knowing that you are the best in the world on that day, that is what you love. That is one of the main reasons why I moved to McLaren. We might not win the championship every year but every year you have the chance of winning grands prix – they give you that opportunity with the car."

But will Hamilton give himself the opportunity to extend a relationship that has lasted for more than half of his 27 years? If he does stay at McLaren, he will have to be totally committed, their team principal, Martin Whitmarsh, warned. "Ultimately a driver has to drive where he is happy to drive, so the team and I don't want anyone who is not 100% committed to it," he said. "You can't work like that. I've made that clear from the outset."